The two numbers behind the seed
St. John Paul II finished 3–13–1 but landed 16th in the final Division 5 girls’ soccer ratings. Its published calculation is −1.5294 for average capped goal margin plus 0.1945 for average opponent rating, giving −1.3349 overall.
Nashoba Valley Tech, immediately below JPII, finished 11–4–3. Its corresponding numbers are 0.7222 and −2.1299, producing −1.4077. JPII’s overall advantage is 0.0728 rating points, calculated from those published totals.
A record alone misses the comparison
The MIAA combines goal margin with the ratings of opponents. Soccer’s margin is capped at three goals per match; opponents’ ratings themselves reflect their results and schedules. The association describes an iterative calculation in which results elsewhere can affect a team’s rating.
That explains why the Lions’ losing record and higher position can coexist. Their opponent component offsets part of a negative margin, while Nashoba’s positive margin is paired with a lower opponent component. The calculation orders those two season records differently from a simple win count.
Qualification was earned through the rating
The MIAA’s November 5 release says the top 32 eligible power-ranked teams qualify automatically. Eligible teams below that line need at least a .500 winning percentage. JPII qualified through its position inside the top 32.
